***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 5.8 9.9 71.7 51.1 42.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.0 12.0 90.8 57.4 46.2 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.6 10.1 72.8 50.7 42.8 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.4 11.7 12.9 73.4 53.0 43.6 6.7 11.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.0 12.4 70.9 51.5 42.9 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.2 10.7 17.3 69.6 49.1 40.9 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.6 11.9 90.4 57.5 45.7 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.0 19.4 14.0 75.4 52.0 42.4 11.6 18.4 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.5 11.4 66.4 49.0 40.9 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 8.7 13.5 71.2 50.0 41.6 4.7 8.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.5 11.9 72.4 52.2 42.3 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.0 10.8 11.4 73.3 52.4 41.3 5.8 10.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.3 10.0 14.5 70.1 50.5 41.8 6.2 9.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.5 11.2 13.4 80.6 53.5 43.1 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.0 12.4 79.5 56.4 45.1 3.2 5.7 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.2 8.3 13.2 69.3 50.8 41.7 5.1 8.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.2 12.6 97.0 60.5 46.9 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 8.4 15.5 73.2 50.0 42.3 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.4 11.5 87.7 56.5 46.2 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 9.6 20.3 79.9 51.0 43.9 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.7 9.8 65.1 49.1 40.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.1 12.7 100.1 62.0 49.4 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.3 10.8 11.5 85.4 55.9 46.3 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.5 7.9 12.5 72.0 49.7 41.7 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.1 12.9 72.8 51.4 44.4 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.8 8.5 13.2 71.9 50.6 41.5 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.8 12.1 75.4 52.3 44.4 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.1 12.6 75.1 54.4 43.4 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.6 11.5 17.1 76.9 50.1 42.6 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.8 11.4 86.3 55.8 45.6 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------