***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.3 20.2 121.9 70.0 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.2 21.5 121.2 69.7 59.2 2.9 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.0 20.0 117.0 68.2 56.8 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.9 19.5 23.8 115.1 67.6 57.0 6.6 11.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.9 14.2 23.1 112.8 66.6 56.9 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.5 16.5 30.1 114.7 66.9 58.4 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 12.3 11.8 21.6 119.2 68.9 58.9 3.7 6.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.3 21.2 22.2 101.9 61.5 54.1 9.3 15.6 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.2 21.7 111.3 66.1 56.6 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.8 23.4 106.9 63.7 55.7 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.6 21.6 109.8 65.6 56.3 5.4 8.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.8 19.0 105.1 63.4 53.8 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.9 24.9 112.7 66.1 56.4 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.3 14.6 23.6 110.2 65.1 55.1 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 14.2 21.3 116.1 68.1 55.9 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.5 23.4 109.4 65.0 55.5 4.9 7.9 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 14.7 15.3 20.8 126.9 71.6 61.0 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.4 14.1 24.8 104.2 61.8 54.3 5.2 9.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 19.3 18.0 21.2 120.2 69.3 58.4 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.8 28.4 102.0 59.7 53.8 6.4 10.2 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.3 14.8 19.8 116.3 68.1 57.0 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.8 21.0 128.8 72.3 61.1 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.0 12.0 21.5 117.6 68.4 57.2 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.1 22.3 108.2 64.2 54.9 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.3 17.6 24.9 121.8 69.9 58.6 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.0 23.0 115.1 67.2 56.8 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 16.0 23.7 121.4 69.8 58.3 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.5 22.3 110.7 66.1 55.0 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.9 18.1 25.6 102.5 60.5 53.4 8.4 13.9 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.9 12.8 21.2 119.4 69.0 58.1 2.9 6.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------