***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 14.9 13.3 95.4 60.1 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 5.7 11.8 12.2 92.1 58.7 46.7 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.5 15.9 12.8 97.8 60.7 47.3 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.2 13.6 16.1 92.2 57.7 45.5 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 5.0 13.6 15.5 92.5 58.4 46.1 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.1 20.1 89.4 56.1 48.7 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.2 12.4 90.8 58.0 46.0 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.3 24.0 16.5 97.2 61.2 48.6 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.8 14.9 92.7 59.0 46.2 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.5 16.1 17.0 95.5 60.2 48.0 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.0 14.5 94.2 59.9 47.7 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 11.2 13.3 94.4 60.6 47.6 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.4 16.0 89.2 56.8 48.1 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.4 15.8 14.9 91.4 58.0 46.3 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.9 14.0 89.6 57.6 44.4 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.3 13.1 15.5 92.2 58.2 48.1 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.1 11.0 10.9 87.0 56.6 44.2 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.7 17.8 18.5 97.2 60.4 48.5 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.4 12.0 93.4 59.6 47.3 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 18.3 21.1 99.4 60.8 49.5 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.7 11.9 13.4 94.8 59.9 46.0 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.7 14.6 10.8 90.8 58.6 46.2 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.6 13.8 12.2 93.0 59.7 46.9 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 7.5 17.6 15.5 96.4 60.1 47.5 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.6 17.1 92.6 57.2 45.6 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.3 15.1 91.2 58.1 47.3 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.6 13.3 15.7 92.7 57.8 45.1 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.6 15.0 91.6 58.3 45.6 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.7 23.3 19.1 97.4 60.4 48.5 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 6.1 13.2 12.6 94.2 59.8 47.5 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------