***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 42.7 51.3 91.7 49.1 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 40.5 35.7 51.5 94.6 50.9 48.1 25.1 35.2 46.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 50.8 44.1 50.2 90.6 48.8 46.1 34.2 44.9 56.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 42.8 53.8 62.8 87.5 44.3 42.4 45.2 58.2 72.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 32.6 41.8 60.7 85.5 43.4 41.9 35.0 46.0 58.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 38.2 43.7 78.1 84.5 40.3 40.6 39.1 50.0 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.6 37.3 52.1 94.1 50.1 46.6 26.8 37.3 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 67.5 74.5 61.5 81.6 38.7 38.9 69.6 84.3 99.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 32.4 40.2 56.6 83.6 42.3 41.2 34.6 44.8 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 39.2 46.3 63.4 83.2 40.8 40.5 40.7 52.7 66.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 32.5 39.7 57.0 85.0 43.9 42.1 33.9 43.2 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 36.4 41.4 51.6 81.5 39.6 39.4 37.8 46.8 56.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 32.5 36.1 65.5 83.0 38.8 39.9 33.1 41.8 51.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 64.7 52.2 61.2 88.8 44.7 43.8 42.2 56.8 73.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 26.4 34.8 57.6 89.1 46.5 43.2 27.1 36.8 48.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 34.4 39.2 61.5 82.9 40.3 40.1 35.4 44.5 54.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.2 42.1 49.8 96.5 52.4 48.1 28.0 40.0 54.0 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 41.7 48.8 69.4 84.2 39.9 40.5 43.4 57.0 72.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 53.0 47.4 50.7 93.8 50.5 48.3 35.5 47.0 60.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 37.8 42.2 79.3 83.5 36.5 38.1 39.6 52.3 66.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 28.7 37.2 51.0 86.1 44.7 42.5 30.7 40.3 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 46.1 43.2 50.1 98.6 54.4 50.4 29.6 40.2 52.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 47.3 41.5 52.2 93.2 50.1 48.2 30.7 41.5 53.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 39.4 48.4 60.1 86.6 43.2 42.5 40.5 53.9 68.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 34.3 45.0 66.6 92.2 48.0 44.9 35.3 46.2 58.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 30.3 34.1 60.7 83.8 39.7 40.4 30.5 40.0 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 36.6 47.5 61.6 92.7 48.8 45.3 37.7 48.3 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 28.4 35.9 59.4 85.8 43.3 41.3 30.0 39.9 51.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 59.0 65.6 71.8 84.1 38.8 39.7 60.8 74.3 88.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 44.5 38.2 51.7 93.9 50.7 47.7 25.8 37.7 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------