***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 10.1 11.3 11.3 2.4 89.1 85.4 7.3 8.4 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 10.1 12.0 11.1 2.5 90.8 87.4 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 11.8 13.8 11.6 2.7 92.4 89.3 8.4 9.7 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 6.7 9.6 9.5 3.4 95.6 92.5 3.0 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 8.1 10.2 10.1 3.0 93.9 90.5 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 6.9 9.0 7.5 3.5 96.1 93.1 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 10.0 11.7 11.1 2.5 90.7 86.9 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 1.9 3.8 6.9 2.8 92.7 89.4 -1.1 0.1 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 8.8 10.7 9.7 2.8 93.4 91.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 8.8 10.4 8.0 2.8 93.3 90.4 6.2 7.2 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 8.2 9.8 9.2 2.8 93.4 90.6 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 6.5 7.9 7.9 2.7 92.6 89.4 4.4 5.2 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.2 8.1 2.8 93.3 90.5 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 9.6 11.4 9.5 2.8 93.7 91.0 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 9.4 11.2 10.3 2.9 94.6 92.0 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 9.5 11.4 8.8 3.0 94.1 91.1 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 10.1 11.7 11.0 2.6 91.4 87.5 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 6.9 8.7 7.7 3.1 94.6 91.6 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 9.9 11.8 11.2 2.7 92.1 89.0 6.6 7.8 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 3.6 5.1 5.9 3.0 93.4 89.9 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 9.1 11.0 11.0 2.8 93.0 90.3 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 9.3 10.9 11.1 2.6 92.2 88.7 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 9.5 11.6 11.3 2.9 94.4 91.5 6.3 7.5 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 8.6 10.5 9.7 3.0 94.5 91.7 6.0 7.0 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 9.6 11.4 10.7 2.6 90.7 86.9 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 7.7 9.4 7.8 3.4 95.8 92.7 5.5 6.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 10.5 12.5 11.0 2.4 89.2 85.0 6.3 8.0 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.7 9.9 3.4 96.0 93.4 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 6.6 8.5 6.6 2.8 91.9 88.7 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 10.4 12.3 11.4 2.5 90.8 87.4 6.7 8.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------