***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.2 11.4 1.3 70.1 63.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.7 10.9 1.0 67.2 62.5 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.7 11.3 1.2 70.6 64.8 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.5 8.5 1.1 69.8 64.3 5.1 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.3 9.2 1.2 71.2 65.3 7.0 8.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.8 6.5 1.2 71.2 66.0 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.6 10.9 1.0 67.1 62.3 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.2 6.5 1.2 70.8 66.2 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.8 10.1 9.3 1.3 74.0 67.4 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 9.8 9.9 7.5 1.2 71.8 66.6 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.2 9.4 8.5 1.3 73.2 67.2 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.9 7.5 1.2 71.9 66.8 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.8 8.8 7.2 1.1 70.5 65.1 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.4 8.9 1.0 69.8 65.3 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 10.7 10.9 9.9 1.2 73.6 66.4 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.4 7.9 1.2 71.3 65.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.7 10.5 0.9 65.1 61.2 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.4 6.8 1.1 69.8 65.7 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 10.6 10.7 10.9 1.1 69.4 64.2 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.5 4.9 1.0 67.7 64.1 3.0 3.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.0 10.6 1.2 71.7 65.5 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 9.9 9.8 10.5 0.9 65.8 62.3 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.5 10.9 1.3 73.7 67.6 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 9.8 9.9 8.9 1.1 70.7 65.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.7 10.4 1.3 70.2 64.2 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 8.6 8.8 6.8 1.3 72.6 66.3 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.6 10.9 1.2 69.5 63.5 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.6 8.9 1.1 70.5 64.7 6.7 7.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.5 6.1 1.1 69.2 65.6 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.0 11.2 1.1 69.0 63.6 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------