***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.9 11.5 0.5 58.9 56.7 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.1 11.1 0.4 57.9 55.8 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.7 11.5 0.5 59.6 57.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 8.9 0.6 61.3 58.5 6.1 7.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.4 9.0 0.6 61.5 59.2 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.5 7.2 0.8 66.3 61.9 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.9 11.1 0.4 56.8 54.8 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 3.7 3.4 6.8 0.7 63.3 60.9 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.3 9.2 0.6 61.5 59.2 8.7 9.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.2 7.7 0.6 62.5 60.1 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.9 8.3 0.6 63.4 60.7 8.4 9.3 10.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.3 7.6 0.7 63.8 60.9 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.5 7.3 0.6 63.0 59.5 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 9.0 0.4 57.7 56.3 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.3 10.1 0.7 63.4 59.0 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.8 7.9 0.7 63.5 60.4 8.9 10.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.2 10.9 0.3 56.0 54.2 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.5 7.0 0.6 62.2 59.8 7.1 8.0 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.1 11.2 0.5 59.9 57.5 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 4.9 0.6 61.8 59.9 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.1 10.6 0.5 59.5 57.5 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 10.7 0.4 56.8 55.1 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.8 11.0 0.6 62.1 59.3 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.3 8.9 0.5 60.0 58.0 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.5 10.1 0.5 59.4 57.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.5 7.1 0.8 66.4 61.6 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.3 10.9 0.5 59.2 56.7 9.5 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 9.2 0.6 61.9 58.4 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.8 6.4 0.6 61.9 59.7 6.0 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.1 11.3 0.5 58.4 56.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------