***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 1.1 77.7 72.6 9.5 10.1 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.1 11.2 1.0 76.1 71.7 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.5 13.0 11.6 1.2 80.4 75.2 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 7.6 8.2 9.1 1.3 84.6 78.4 5.8 6.6 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 9.1 9.5 9.5 1.3 83.7 78.0 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 7.9 8.5 7.2 1.5 87.7 80.8 6.7 7.2 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.9 11.2 1.0 75.3 70.9 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 3.0 3.5 6.9 1.2 83.6 77.9 1.6 2.2 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 9.9 10.3 9.5 1.2 84.0 78.8 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 9.8 10.2 7.9 1.2 83.7 78.4 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 9.4 9.8 8.7 1.3 84.7 78.8 8.3 8.7 9.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 7.7 8.1 7.8 1.3 84.2 78.1 6.7 7.1 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 8.9 9.3 7.6 1.2 83.8 77.4 7.9 8.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 10.4 10.8 9.2 1.1 80.3 75.1 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 10.6 11.1 10.3 1.3 85.4 78.8 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 10.3 10.8 8.3 1.3 84.7 78.5 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.9 11.1 11.0 1.0 74.6 70.5 9.6 10.2 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 7.9 8.4 7.2 1.2 83.6 78.2 6.7 7.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 10.7 11.0 11.3 1.1 78.9 74.2 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 4.6 4.9 5.3 1.2 82.6 76.8 3.4 3.9 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 9.9 10.3 10.8 1.2 81.8 76.5 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.3 10.9 1.0 75.6 71.4 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 10.3 10.8 11.2 1.3 83.4 78.2 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 9.8 10.2 9.2 1.2 82.6 77.1 8.7 9.2 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 10.2 10.7 10.5 1.2 79.6 74.1 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 8.8 9.4 7.3 1.5 88.0 81.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.4 11.1 1.1 77.9 72.7 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 8.6 9.0 9.4 1.3 85.3 78.9 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 7.4 7.8 6.5 1.2 81.8 76.3 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.2 11.5 1.1 77.2 72.5 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------