***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 22.3 24.0 21.9 3.2 89.1 83.3 18.8 20.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 22.1 23.7 21.4 2.6 84.5 78.3 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 22.3 24.4 22.1 3.3 88.8 83.3 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 15.5 18.7 19.7 4.3 94.3 90.5 10.8 12.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 22.8 25.5 21.0 4.0 92.5 87.9 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 21.2 24.2 19.0 4.5 93.6 90.1 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 21.7 23.1 21.1 2.5 83.2 76.9 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 10.3 12.9 19.1 4.3 92.7 88.9 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 22.3 25.0 22.0 4.1 92.9 88.0 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 22.3 24.6 20.2 4.2 92.1 87.8 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 22.7 25.4 21.6 4.3 93.1 88.9 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 21.8 24.9 20.2 4.4 94.2 90.3 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 22.7 25.5 20.9 4.2 93.2 89.2 18.3 19.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 22.5 24.4 21.3 3.3 87.7 82.5 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 22.2 25.6 22.3 4.6 96.1 92.8 18.2 19.7 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 23.2 26.2 20.9 4.3 93.8 89.8 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 21.3 22.4 20.8 2.3 81.1 75.1 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 21.9 24.1 19.4 4.0 90.8 86.5 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 21.9 23.8 21.8 3.0 87.1 81.0 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 16.9 19.6 17.4 4.2 92.3 88.4 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 22.5 24.7 22.4 3.7 90.8 85.8 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 22.2 23.5 21.0 2.4 82.1 76.3 18.5 20.1 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 22.7 25.2 22.4 3.6 91.2 85.2 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 22.1 24.1 21.3 3.6 89.3 84.2 18.1 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 22.3 24.4 21.1 3.5 90.5 85.3 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 21.7 25.3 19.5 4.8 96.0 92.5 17.5 19.1 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 22.0 23.8 21.3 3.1 88.5 82.6 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 22.5 25.7 20.9 4.5 95.1 91.7 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 17.0 19.4 18.8 4.0 90.7 86.5 12.7 14.3 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 21.9 23.7 21.6 2.8 86.3 80.0 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------