***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.4 21.2 0.6 57.6 55.2 21.0 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.0 20.8 0.3 54.0 52.4 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.4 21.4 0.6 57.1 54.9 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 19.1 0.7 59.4 56.0 14.3 15.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.6 19.7 0.7 58.8 56.0 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 19.7 22.1 17.5 0.7 58.9 55.2 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.5 20.8 0.2 53.3 51.8 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 17.9 0.6 57.3 55.1 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.8 23.0 20.0 0.8 59.1 56.4 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.7 18.7 0.7 58.0 55.6 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.0 19.4 0.7 59.0 56.2 20.9 22.3 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.3 18.9 0.8 59.5 56.6 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.2 18.3 0.8 59.8 56.7 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 20.9 22.9 19.4 0.3 53.1 52.2 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.7 20.0 0.8 61.8 57.1 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.9 19.0 0.8 59.7 56.5 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.0 20.5 0.1 51.9 50.8 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.2 18.2 0.6 56.7 54.8 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.7 21.1 0.4 55.5 53.7 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.2 15.5 0.5 55.4 53.7 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.2 20.9 0.7 58.3 55.9 21.0 22.5 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.7 20.4 0.1 51.7 50.8 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.2 21.2 0.6 57.2 55.0 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.6 19.6 0.5 55.8 54.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.2 19.7 0.7 58.9 56.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 23.4 23.0 18.4 1.1 63.5 59.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.9 20.5 0.6 58.0 55.5 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.5 19.4 0.7 59.7 55.9 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.1 17.2 0.5 55.4 53.8 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.8 21.0 0.4 55.0 53.3 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------