***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.7 9.7 10.7 73.7 49.9 37.8 6.0 9.7 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.2 11.0 82.1 55.1 41.5 3.1 6.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 4.2 8.3 9.6 69.4 48.9 35.4 5.0 8.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 4.3 5.2 7.5 42.6 29.7 23.6 5.9 10.0 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 3.1 4.4 7.6 48.1 34.0 24.4 4.3 7.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 2.8 3.6 8.8 48.0 30.7 26.9 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.7 11.7 89.4 57.6 42.7 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 8.1 10.2 9.9 53.3 35.6 29.2 9.4 14.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 3.5 5.7 8.9 57.2 39.6 28.6 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.2 6.0 10.5 57.5 38.8 30.0 4.8 8.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 3.2 4.1 7.5 45.9 33.4 25.6 4.1 7.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.8 3.9 7.4 47.1 32.8 26.5 3.9 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.8 4.0 7.8 45.6 33.4 25.2 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.3 10.5 12.3 76.0 50.8 36.9 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 2.8 3.6 6.4 40.8 33.0 25.3 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 3.4 4.5 7.2 44.3 32.0 25.1 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.2 12.5 96.6 61.5 47.1 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.1 7.3 11.5 62.1 40.7 32.1 5.6 9.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.6 10.5 78.0 53.0 40.0 3.7 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.9 6.7 12.0 63.0 40.7 34.0 5.1 8.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.4 5.8 9.1 61.0 42.9 31.0 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.3 12.1 93.2 60.3 45.9 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.0 6.1 9.8 72.0 49.9 36.8 3.4 6.2 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.4 7.9 10.6 67.6 46.3 33.4 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.6 6.3 9.9 61.3 41.8 30.2 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.9 6.5 41.4 27.9 22.6 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.2 8.0 10.9 71.2 47.9 36.2 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.4 2.8 7.1 41.5 31.2 25.5 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.1 10.7 11.9 65.0 42.7 33.9 7.7 13.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.7 7.3 10.3 76.6 52.5 39.3 3.7 6.7 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------