***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.2 14.8 96.1 60.9 47.1 3.1 5.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.6 13.9 101.5 63.6 48.4 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.6 15.6 101.8 63.1 48.1 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.2 14.4 17.4 98.4 61.2 44.3 6.7 11.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.1 16.9 97.3 60.7 44.8 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.2 21.2 110.1 65.1 50.6 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.8 14.3 99.4 62.5 48.0 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.3 24.6 18.7 101.1 62.0 47.9 11.6 18.4 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.0 10.5 16.9 96.1 60.3 44.2 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 12.1 19.1 99.1 61.2 46.3 4.7 8.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.8 9.7 17.9 98.2 60.2 46.3 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.8 13.1 16.9 96.5 59.7 46.1 5.8 10.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.7 12.7 18.4 98.3 60.3 46.3 6.2 9.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.5 13.1 19.1 93.7 58.7 44.7 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.9 16.2 94.6 60.4 42.9 3.2 5.7 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.8 10.5 17.8 97.8 60.2 45.7 5.1 8.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.8 13.6 97.5 62.3 47.8 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.7 20.4 99.6 61.4 47.5 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.4 14.1 100.0 62.9 48.1 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 11.6 20.4 96.9 58.3 46.5 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.2 16.1 96.7 61.0 45.2 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.4 13.4 92.3 59.8 45.6 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.6 12.6 15.3 98.5 61.8 47.0 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.6 19.0 98.7 61.0 46.4 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.5 17.0 90.5 57.7 44.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.2 16.6 92.4 57.3 43.9 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.6 16.5 95.5 60.1 47.1 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.3 8.6 17.1 99.1 61.8 44.2 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 15.0 20.3 95.2 58.3 46.1 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.0 14.4 103.3 63.9 48.4 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------