***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.7 14.1 82.2 56.2 45.8 2.9 6.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.9 14.2 92.2 61.6 48.6 2.9 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.9 14.2 86.3 58.6 47.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.9 17.5 18.6 101.5 63.6 50.8 6.6 11.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.6 17.7 100.2 63.1 50.8 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.2 20.0 97.2 59.7 48.8 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.7 14.8 95.3 62.4 49.8 3.7 6.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.8 22.4 19.8 103.4 63.5 51.8 9.3 15.6 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.2 17.3 92.3 60.3 49.1 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.7 13.5 19.8 96.5 61.1 50.1 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.4 12.1 16.9 102.0 63.7 50.9 5.4 8.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.8 17.5 103.2 63.7 51.4 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.3 18.3 95.6 60.2 50.4 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.1 18.4 83.2 56.4 46.9 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.7 16.0 95.3 61.9 48.1 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.0 10.8 17.6 100.9 62.8 50.3 4.9 7.9 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.9 12.5 15.1 102.9 65.6 52.0 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.4 21.3 94.1 60.2 50.2 5.2 9.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.7 14.0 89.7 60.5 47.9 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 14.1 23.2 103.9 63.5 52.5 6.4 10.2 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.7 15.8 90.2 60.0 49.2 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.9 15.2 99.4 64.2 50.8 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.2 13.9 86.3 58.9 47.8 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.8 17.9 88.6 58.6 48.6 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.7 17.2 91.1 59.6 48.8 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.3 17.3 98.8 61.9 52.0 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.2 15.9 87.8 58.5 47.8 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.2 17.7 98.6 62.6 48.7 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.7 18.2 21.7 96.6 60.9 50.2 8.4 13.9 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.9 13.7 86.2 59.1 47.1 2.9 6.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------