***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 34.2 42.2 54.4 85.7 44.5 41.5 36.0 45.5 55.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.7 34.6 51.8 90.3 49.1 45.6 25.1 35.2 46.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 31.8 42.0 53.2 86.4 45.6 43.0 34.2 44.9 56.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 42.5 51.6 60.0 83.3 41.4 40.0 45.2 58.2 72.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 32.6 40.9 57.2 83.9 42.0 40.9 35.0 46.0 58.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 37.1 44.7 70.0 87.7 42.0 41.6 39.1 50.0 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 25.6 38.6 54.4 94.1 51.9 47.4 26.8 37.3 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 66.9 77.5 66.2 87.3 42.4 42.1 69.6 84.3 99.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 33.0 40.4 58.5 84.1 42.7 41.0 34.6 44.8 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 38.9 47.1 67.6 85.7 42.0 41.5 40.7 52.7 66.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 32.1 38.5 57.2 84.4 41.8 41.2 33.9 43.2 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 36.6 42.1 57.3 84.9 41.1 40.9 37.8 46.8 56.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 31.6 36.2 62.0 83.1 39.2 39.7 33.1 41.8 51.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 40.1 49.2 67.2 84.1 41.3 40.6 42.2 56.8 73.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 24.7 32.8 54.6 82.6 43.1 39.4 27.1 36.8 48.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 34.2 39.4 59.0 83.8 40.5 40.4 35.4 44.5 54.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.9 43.6 53.7 96.8 54.4 49.6 28.0 40.0 54.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 42.6 51.3 73.7 87.2 43.3 42.4 43.4 57.0 72.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 33.6 44.7 50.9 87.5 46.6 43.8 35.5 47.0 60.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 37.3 48.8 77.3 90.9 45.5 44.1 39.6 52.3 66.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 28.5 36.6 55.9 85.0 43.8 41.6 30.7 40.3 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 29.2 40.5 52.9 92.6 50.6 47.6 29.6 40.2 52.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 28.1 37.4 51.3 84.4 43.8 41.7 30.7 41.5 53.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 38.8 48.7 64.5 86.1 43.7 42.1 40.5 53.9 68.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 33.8 41.4 61.1 84.4 42.5 39.8 35.3 46.2 58.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 29.9 33.0 56.2 81.3 37.7 38.3 30.5 40.0 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 35.9 45.3 59.7 87.2 45.3 41.7 37.7 48.3 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 27.8 34.6 58.0 82.4 41.2 39.4 30.0 39.9 51.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 59.3 68.9 74.6 87.8 43.2 42.5 60.8 74.3 88.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 24.8 35.4 51.3 88.0 47.2 44.3 25.8 37.7 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------