***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.6 -1.2 27.3 32.7 7.7 8.8 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 5.9 5.4 6.8 -1.8 19.0 25.7 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 8.1 7.8 7.4 -1.5 22.4 28.3 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 2.4 4.7 -1.4 23.7 28.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.1 5.0 5.6 -1.4 24.2 29.1 5.6 6.8 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.2 2.9 -1.1 27.9 31.0 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 6.3 6.0 7.0 -1.5 22.2 29.0 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -1.6 -1.9 2.7 -1.5 21.1 25.5 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 5.4 4.8 5.0 -2.0 14.4 19.2 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 5.7 5.3 3.4 -1.8 16.7 21.4 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 5.5 5.0 4.8 -1.6 18.8 23.7 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.2 4.1 -1.1 27.1 31.1 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 5.3 5.1 3.8 -1.4 21.4 25.3 5.7 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 6.1 5.4 4.7 -2.0 15.2 20.6 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 6.6 6.6 6.1 -1.1 26.8 30.5 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.5 6.2 4.4 -1.3 23.3 27.4 6.9 7.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 6.5 6.2 6.7 -1.7 18.9 26.4 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 3.8 3.5 3.0 -1.7 20.2 24.7 4.4 5.5 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 6.0 5.4 6.6 -1.9 16.6 22.9 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 0.8 0.8 1.4 -1.6 22.7 26.6 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 5.7 5.2 6.6 -1.6 19.5 25.0 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 5.7 5.2 6.7 -1.9 16.2 23.8 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 5.8 5.0 6.2 -2.2 13.4 18.7 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 5.5 5.0 4.8 -2.0 15.3 20.2 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.3 6.9 -1.2 28.4 33.4 6.6 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.9 3.7 -0.6 37.0 39.4 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.8 7.6 -0.9 33.0 37.3 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.0 4.8 5.1 -1.3 25.5 29.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.3 2.0 -1.9 18.8 22.7 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 6.2 5.8 7.1 -1.7 20.6 26.8 7.0 8.4 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------