***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.9 9.9 -0.1 47.4 48.9 9.1 10.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.5 9.6 -0.3 44.8 47.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.3 9.8 -0.3 44.2 46.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.2 7.3 -0.2 46.7 48.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.9 7.7 -0.2 45.4 47.1 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.8 5.3 -0.1 47.5 49.7 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.5 9.6 -0.3 45.2 47.8 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.5 1.7 5.0 -0.4 41.7 44.2 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.7 7.8 -0.2 46.0 47.0 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 6.0 -0.3 43.0 44.8 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.2 7.0 -0.3 44.1 45.9 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.7 5.9 -0.3 42.7 45.2 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.5 5.7 -0.5 40.1 43.5 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.2 7.2 -0.6 38.0 40.7 8.9 9.7 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 8.6 0.0 50.3 51.2 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.1 6.5 -0.3 43.4 45.9 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.8 9.3 -0.3 43.9 46.7 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 6.4 5.3 -0.4 41.2 43.4 6.0 6.7 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.6 9.5 -0.3 44.6 46.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.4 3.3 -0.6 38.0 41.5 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.8 9.1 -0.2 46.3 47.6 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.9 9.1 -0.5 41.0 44.0 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.3 9.2 -0.3 43.8 45.4 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.3 8.8 7.3 -0.4 41.1 43.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 9.0 0.0 49.8 50.5 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.7 5.4 -0.2 44.8 47.7 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.0 9.4 -0.1 47.8 49.4 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.6 7.6 -0.2 46.3 48.2 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.9 4.5 -0.5 39.0 41.6 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.7 9.7 -0.3 45.2 47.5 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------