***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.8 11.4 0.2 55.2 54.6 9.4 10.5 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.3 11.0 11.1 0.2 53.7 54.2 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 10.9 12.4 11.3 0.1 52.1 53.1 11.2 12.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.6 8.7 0.1 51.5 53.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.9 8.7 0.0 50.5 53.0 7.9 8.9 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.1 6.8 0.1 53.3 54.2 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 11.9 11.0 11.2 0.2 55.2 55.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.9 6.4 -0.1 48.6 52.0 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.6 9.8 9.0 0.0 50.3 52.7 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.6 7.4 0.0 49.0 52.2 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.3 8.0 0.0 49.7 52.9 8.5 9.4 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.7 7.1 -0.1 48.7 52.3 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.0 6.9 0.0 49.3 52.7 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.3 10.3 8.8 -0.1 48.7 51.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.8 9.9 0.2 53.6 54.2 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.1 7.6 0.0 50.1 53.2 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 9.7 11.2 11.0 0.2 54.3 54.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.0 6.6 -0.1 48.1 51.8 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.8 11.0 0.1 52.7 53.5 9.7 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.4 4.5 -0.1 48.1 51.7 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 8.5 9.8 10.4 0.0 50.8 52.5 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 8.9 10.2 10.6 0.0 50.5 52.1 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.4 10.8 0.1 51.9 52.8 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.8 8.6 -0.1 48.8 51.7 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.8 10.2 10.0 0.2 54.0 54.5 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.2 6.9 0.3 58.1 57.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.3 11.1 10.8 0.3 56.3 55.6 9.5 10.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.8 8.9 0.1 51.3 53.3 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.2 6.0 -0.1 48.7 52.1 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.9 11.2 0.2 53.5 54.0 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------