***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.6 12.2 12.4 0.3 55.7 53.6 10.9 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 10.6 12.1 12.2 0.2 54.6 52.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.1 13.7 12.4 0.2 53.9 51.9 12.4 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.1 8.8 9.7 0.1 53.0 51.4 7.3 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.7 9.7 0.1 52.8 51.5 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.4 7.8 0.2 54.1 51.4 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 10.6 12.3 12.3 0.3 55.9 53.3 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.1 7.5 0.0 50.0 49.5 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.5 10.0 0.1 52.5 51.1 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 10.2 11.2 8.4 0.0 50.2 49.6 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.2 9.0 0.1 52.4 51.1 10.2 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.1 9.2 8.2 0.1 52.7 51.1 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.7 8.0 0.2 54.1 52.3 9.7 10.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.7 9.8 -0.1 48.4 49.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.2 10.8 0.2 53.8 51.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.7 8.6 0.2 53.8 52.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 10.9 12.4 12.0 0.2 53.6 51.7 11.2 12.2 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.5 9.5 7.6 -0.1 48.9 48.7 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.7 12.2 12.1 0.2 53.6 51.8 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.5 5.5 -0.1 47.9 48.4 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.5 11.4 0.1 52.9 51.4 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 10.1 11.3 11.6 0.0 49.5 49.3 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.6 11.8 0.1 52.3 51.0 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.2 9.6 0.0 50.0 49.5 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.9 10.9 0.2 53.9 52.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.6 7.8 0.4 59.4 55.7 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.5 12.5 11.8 0.3 55.9 53.9 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.1 9.9 0.1 52.0 50.5 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.1 6.9 -0.1 47.5 47.8 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.4 12.3 0.3 54.8 52.7 11.0 12.1 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------