***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.1 10.3 -0.2 43.7 44.5 9.7 10.3 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.7 9.9 -0.4 37.5 40.7 9.5 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.4 10.2 -0.4 38.0 40.8 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.8 6.3 7.6 -0.3 38.9 40.9 6.0 6.8 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.9 -0.4 38.0 40.9 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.7 7.1 5.7 -0.2 42.3 43.9 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 9.4 9.8 10.0 -0.3 40.5 42.3 9.6 10.1 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 1.6 1.8 5.4 -0.5 33.5 38.5 1.8 2.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 8.7 8.8 7.9 -0.5 33.0 37.4 8.8 9.4 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 8.7 8.8 6.3 -0.6 31.8 37.0 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 8.4 8.6 7.2 -0.4 34.9 39.4 8.5 9.0 9.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.8 7.0 6.3 -0.4 38.0 41.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.2 6.1 -0.4 35.1 39.1 8.1 8.5 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.3 7.6 -0.7 28.3 33.8 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.9 8.9 -0.2 43.1 44.1 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 9.0 9.4 6.8 -0.4 37.5 40.7 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.8 -0.4 37.0 40.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.7 6.9 5.6 -0.6 31.7 36.6 6.9 7.4 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.7 9.8 -0.5 35.2 39.2 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.4 3.6 3.7 -0.6 31.4 36.4 3.6 4.1 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.7 8.9 9.4 -0.4 36.7 39.8 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 8.8 9.0 9.5 -0.6 31.8 37.1 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.1 9.2 9.5 -0.6 32.2 37.1 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 8.7 8.8 7.6 -0.6 30.0 35.2 8.9 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 9.2 -0.2 43.9 44.7 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.3 6.0 0.0 49.3 48.7 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.2 9.9 -0.1 46.9 46.6 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.9 7.9 -0.3 39.1 41.0 7.8 8.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.8 5.9 4.8 -0.6 29.5 34.7 6.1 6.7 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.5 9.9 10.1 -0.4 38.4 41.1 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------