***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 18.8 19.9 18.4 -0.5 42.1 44.8 19.2 20.4 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 17.9 18.6 17.7 -1.3 31.2 36.7 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 18.2 19.2 18.4 -0.7 39.6 42.9 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.7 15.5 0.0 49.3 49.9 11.0 12.8 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 21.0 20.0 16.9 -0.3 45.7 47.3 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.4 15.5 0.7 59.8 57.6 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 17.6 18.3 17.6 -1.2 31.8 37.0 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.4 14.7 -0.4 44.2 45.7 6.3 7.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.4 17.8 -0.3 45.4 47.2 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 18.1 19.4 16.0 -0.3 45.2 46.6 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.7 19.9 17.4 -0.1 48.5 49.1 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.8 18.8 15.8 -0.2 47.1 48.1 17.5 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.6 20.2 17.1 0.1 51.8 51.6 18.4 20.0 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 17.6 18.2 16.7 -1.5 29.4 34.6 18.6 20.2 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.2 20.3 18.2 0.2 53.8 53.1 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.6 16.9 0.1 52.0 51.8 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 17.1 17.5 17.0 -1.6 27.0 33.5 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 17.4 18.3 14.7 -0.9 38.5 41.2 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 17.5 18.3 17.8 -1.2 32.2 37.3 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 12.0 12.9 12.3 -1.1 34.7 38.1 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 18.2 19.4 18.4 -0.5 42.1 44.9 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 17.4 17.5 16.8 -1.9 23.3 30.4 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 17.9 18.8 17.9 -1.1 34.2 38.7 18.6 20.3 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 17.6 18.6 17.0 -0.9 36.9 40.3 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 18.3 19.4 17.3 -0.5 42.1 44.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.7 20.0 15.6 0.6 59.7 57.5 17.6 19.1 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 18.1 19.1 17.7 -0.6 40.1 43.1 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.4 16.8 0.2 53.6 53.2 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 12.1 13.0 13.9 -1.1 35.8 39.0 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 17.8 18.5 17.9 -1.0 34.4 39.0 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------