***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.8 20.3 0.4 55.6 55.3 21.1 22.4 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.5 20.1 0.2 53.6 53.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.5 20.2 0.1 51.5 51.8 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.8 17.2 0.0 50.3 50.6 13.6 14.8 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 20.8 22.2 18.2 -0.1 48.2 49.1 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.4 15.9 -0.2 46.9 48.2 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.3 20.2 0.4 55.5 55.4 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.5 16.2 -0.2 47.0 48.0 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.8 18.9 -0.1 49.0 49.5 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.5 17.2 -0.2 47.2 48.0 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.7 18.2 -0.2 47.1 48.1 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.3 20.8 17.2 -0.1 48.2 49.0 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 20.1 21.6 17.4 -0.2 47.9 49.0 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.6 21.8 18.5 -0.3 45.6 47.3 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.2 19.2 0.3 54.8 54.1 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.8 22.1 17.6 -0.2 47.4 48.4 21.0 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.7 19.9 0.3 54.0 54.2 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.0 16.5 -0.3 46.6 47.6 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.0 20.1 0.2 52.4 52.7 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.0 14.3 -0.2 48.0 49.0 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.1 19.7 -0.1 49.0 49.8 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.1 19.6 0.0 50.7 51.6 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.3 20.0 0.1 51.5 51.9 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.5 18.4 -0.3 46.5 47.7 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.2 18.8 0.2 52.9 53.2 20.8 22.0 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 21.5 21.5 16.8 0.5 56.8 54.9 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.3 19.7 0.4 56.2 55.9 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.0 17.9 0.0 50.0 50.2 20.8 22.0 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.9 15.7 -0.2 46.9 47.8 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.4 20.2 0.3 53.9 53.9 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------