***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.3 24.1 21.8 0.9 62.5 58.7 21.5 23.0 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 24.7 24.3 21.8 1.1 64.7 60.3 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.4 24.1 22.0 0.9 62.0 58.1 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.7 19.4 0.7 59.9 56.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.1 20.0 0.7 59.8 56.2 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.4 17.9 0.6 58.7 55.2 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 24.1 23.7 21.8 1.1 64.9 60.6 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 18.5 0.8 60.3 56.3 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.4 20.4 0.8 60.2 56.1 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.2 19.2 0.8 60.4 56.3 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.6 19.8 0.8 61.2 56.9 21.3 22.7 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.8 19.4 0.9 61.6 57.3 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.7 18.7 0.8 60.6 56.9 21.5 22.9 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.8 20.2 0.8 60.3 57.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 23.6 24.0 20.2 0.7 61.6 57.2 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.4 19.4 0.8 60.9 57.0 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 23.7 23.3 21.6 1.0 64.2 60.3 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.8 18.8 0.8 59.7 56.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 24.1 23.7 21.9 1.0 64.4 60.0 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.8 16.2 0.7 58.3 55.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.5 21.2 0.7 59.2 55.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.8 21.3 0.8 61.8 58.7 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.1 21.9 1.0 63.8 59.5 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.2 20.2 0.8 60.3 56.6 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.6 20.0 0.7 60.1 57.0 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 23.7 23.8 19.2 1.4 69.3 62.5 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.1 23.6 21.0 0.9 62.6 58.8 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.9 19.7 0.7 60.3 56.5 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.8 17.8 0.7 58.8 55.6 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 24.3 23.9 21.8 1.0 63.9 59.7 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------