***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.7 20.7 0.2 55.8 52.9 21.3 22.3 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.5 20.5 0.1 51.7 50.6 21.3 22.4 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.5 20.7 0.1 52.4 50.7 21.4 22.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.3 18.0 0.2 54.4 51.7 14.1 15.0 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 22.8 22.6 18.9 0.1 51.8 50.0 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 21.2 21.2 16.9 0.3 57.1 53.6 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.2 20.5 0.1 53.0 51.4 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.2 17.0 0.1 51.2 49.5 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 22.3 22.1 19.4 0.1 52.4 50.3 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.9 18.0 0.1 51.8 49.9 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 22.3 22.2 18.9 0.2 53.8 51.5 21.2 22.0 22.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.4 18.0 0.2 53.9 51.4 20.4 21.2 21.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.4 18.1 0.2 55.2 52.5 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.9 18.9 -0.3 43.1 44.1 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.6 22.9 19.6 0.4 60.1 55.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 22.9 22.9 18.4 0.2 55.3 52.6 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.6 20.2 0.0 49.2 49.3 20.6 21.7 22.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.3 17.2 -0.1 48.0 47.3 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.0 20.5 0.1 51.2 50.1 20.9 21.9 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.2 14.8 -0.2 45.8 46.1 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.2 20.2 0.0 50.1 48.9 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.9 21.8 19.9 -0.3 43.7 45.6 21.1 22.2 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.3 20.5 0.0 50.9 49.8 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.7 19.0 -0.1 47.3 46.9 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.3 19.1 0.1 52.4 50.7 21.2 22.2 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 21.7 22.3 17.7 0.8 67.7 61.0 20.6 21.4 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.3 20.0 0.2 55.0 52.4 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 22.6 22.7 18.6 0.3 56.8 53.3 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.2 16.4 -0.2 45.9 46.0 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.3 20.6 0.1 52.7 51.0 21.1 22.1 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------