***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.7 15.0 110.3 66.2 55.8 4.2 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.2 15.3 125.1 71.2 57.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.5 15.1 117.2 68.6 58.2 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.4 10.5 13.3 83.7 55.2 45.8 5.3 9.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.2 12.4 85.4 55.4 46.7 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.3 7.6 12.8 77.1 49.3 41.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.8 16.1 128.7 72.2 59.4 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.4 12.8 14.3 71.1 45.1 39.9 9.3 14.4 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.9 12.9 85.6 54.8 47.1 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.4 7.4 14.7 76.2 48.3 42.8 4.3 7.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.0 12.7 82.2 53.2 43.9 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 7.6 12.0 73.6 47.7 40.8 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.9 12.7 83.5 53.1 41.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.4 17.7 96.2 59.6 50.7 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.0 9.5 13.3 95.7 61.4 48.4 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.3 12.1 81.6 52.9 43.1 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.1 12.4 16.8 138.0 74.9 61.0 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 8.8 16.4 81.4 50.3 44.3 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.6 15.2 119.9 69.6 57.1 3.3 5.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 7.9 16.0 77.3 47.2 41.7 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.8 13.7 97.1 60.8 51.3 3.3 5.7 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.6 12.2 18.1 143.6 76.3 61.4 2.3 4.9 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.4 9.6 15.2 111.4 66.6 56.2 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.7 15.6 92.6 57.7 49.6 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.4 14.3 97.9 61.4 51.0 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.2 12.0 78.6 49.9 41.1 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.5 15.2 106.0 64.4 53.4 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.8 12.7 83.4 55.0 45.2 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 13.2 17.0 83.0 51.3 44.9 7.4 12.6 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 9.7 15.3 121.4 70.0 57.7 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------