***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.5 13.1 78.1 50.7 42.9 3.0 5.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.5 11.5 75.8 49.0 41.2 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.1 12.3 70.0 45.5 38.8 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.2 16.3 18.3 95.6 59.6 48.8 7.1 12.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.8 6.9 15.1 79.2 51.4 41.8 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.4 20.8 99.2 59.4 49.9 5.3 9.4 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.6 7.4 11.7 77.8 51.5 42.3 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.6 24.6 19.0 95.7 59.5 48.4 11.0 18.9 29.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.5 8.4 15.6 80.1 51.6 42.5 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.4 10.9 18.2 87.6 55.5 45.4 5.3 9.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.3 17.4 87.3 54.3 45.0 4.5 8.2 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.3 12.9 18.2 93.7 58.2 47.2 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.7 20.3 95.2 58.6 49.2 5.7 9.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.5 11.2 18.3 81.1 51.8 42.9 5.3 10.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.8 18.1 95.5 59.9 47.5 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.1 19.3 95.9 58.7 49.2 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.3 11.7 80.0 52.4 42.7 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 12.5 20.1 88.9 56.0 46.4 5.5 10.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 7.8 12.2 76.2 49.1 41.6 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.6 20.7 90.5 56.1 47.9 6.2 10.7 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.3 14.1 79.1 52.3 44.6 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.0 12.5 78.4 51.8 42.4 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.2 14.2 81.2 52.1 44.2 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 10.2 17.8 83.4 53.0 43.7 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.9 7.5 15.8 79.6 50.7 43.1 3.9 7.3 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.0 19.0 91.7 56.7 47.2 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.7 6.9 15.0 81.0 51.5 43.7 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.2 18.3 97.9 60.7 49.3 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.3 15.2 21.2 91.7 56.7 47.6 6.8 12.4 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.1 12.0 76.1 49.7 41.7 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------