***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.6 18.1 105.4 64.8 48.4 3.5 7.5 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.9 16.9 111.3 66.7 47.2 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.9 17.3 103.7 64.0 47.9 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.1 17.3 100.4 62.6 50.5 5.4 10.2 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.8 17.4 102.2 63.4 50.7 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.5 12.2 19.8 93.4 58.2 48.2 5.3 9.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.1 15.8 104.5 64.4 45.4 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.0 18.9 18.6 93.1 59.0 48.5 10.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.0 19.2 106.2 64.8 51.5 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.6 20.4 98.3 61.2 50.1 5.7 10.4 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.3 10.8 15.5 94.1 60.1 47.4 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.5 15.5 88.0 56.7 45.4 4.5 7.8 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.3 16.8 84.3 54.7 44.0 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.6 21.7 96.1 60.6 48.7 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.9 16.6 105.8 65.1 49.9 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.5 16.2 91.8 58.8 47.1 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.1 14.8 98.7 62.3 46.2 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.0 21.7 93.3 59.2 49.7 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.5 15.1 16.9 107.7 65.4 47.0 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.5 20.1 85.8 55.2 46.1 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.0 18.0 106.0 65.2 50.2 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.2 15.7 102.4 63.6 46.8 4.2 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.3 16.8 100.5 62.8 46.6 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 15.4 20.6 99.1 62.0 50.1 6.0 10.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.6 14.2 19.1 102.9 63.6 49.6 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.0 15.5 84.3 55.6 44.7 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 14.5 18.6 103.0 63.7 49.1 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.3 16.6 97.4 61.7 49.6 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.3 21.2 90.0 57.3 48.2 7.4 13.1 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.3 17.1 109.8 66.1 45.9 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------