***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.9 18.8 17.8 96.8 62.1 53.1 7.8 13.5 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.7 16.7 18.4 114.8 68.2 56.7 5.1 9.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.4 20.8 19.2 109.6 66.3 54.3 7.7 13.2 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.5 19.0 22.0 107.1 65.6 54.9 6.7 12.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.8 20.5 21.2 109.4 66.4 54.7 5.8 11.5 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.5 22.0 92.9 58.7 50.7 6.7 11.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.6 16.5 18.0 113.8 67.7 55.8 4.7 9.2 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.0 27.0 23.8 106.4 64.7 54.9 12.1 19.0 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.7 16.9 21.5 108.7 66.1 54.1 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.9 19.2 24.5 106.7 64.9 54.3 7.4 12.7 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.3 15.9 20.6 110.0 66.5 55.9 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.9 20.8 104.9 64.7 54.7 5.9 10.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.4 21.1 95.1 60.5 51.4 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.0 22.2 25.6 111.6 66.6 54.6 6.5 12.9 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.3 20.4 105.4 65.7 53.9 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.4 17.1 20.6 102.6 63.7 54.0 6.9 11.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.3 16.1 17.6 111.5 67.4 56.1 4.8 9.3 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 18.2 25.6 103.9 63.4 52.6 7.1 12.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.5 21.4 19.1 116.8 68.8 57.2 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.7 19.1 25.7 104.4 63.5 53.5 8.3 13.5 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.8 17.5 20.0 106.4 65.8 53.9 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 20.8 19.7 19.0 113.8 68.4 58.1 6.1 11.4 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.8 19.7 20.0 118.5 69.2 56.0 6.7 11.7 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.7 20.6 23.2 109.2 65.7 53.4 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.4 19.6 21.5 101.7 64.1 55.2 7.6 13.3 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.0 14.1 19.5 99.1 62.5 52.4 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.3 17.6 19.3 97.3 62.4 54.2 7.0 12.3 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.4 21.1 102.0 64.0 53.5 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 23.8 25.1 103.5 63.1 52.4 11.9 18.0 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.2 20.6 18.5 113.3 67.6 56.1 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------