***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 50.1 46.8 64.0 97.1 54.1 50.4 31.5 43.6 56.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 40.4 43.8 62.1 105.9 61.1 54.1 24.7 35.6 47.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 51.2 49.1 64.0 98.8 55.1 49.8 34.0 45.5 58.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 45.8 62.6 70.8 97.3 53.6 48.6 47.2 59.9 73.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 33.6 47.4 66.1 94.4 50.8 46.8 34.3 46.8 61.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 41.3 50.4 75.4 91.4 47.1 45.0 41.9 52.2 63.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 41.2 44.4 61.5 105.4 60.7 54.8 24.8 36.1 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 68.0 82.3 75.7 91.8 47.2 44.3 69.4 85.1 101.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 51.7 47.2 69.1 95.6 51.9 47.9 34.8 45.9 58.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 61.2 52.6 77.7 92.5 47.9 45.2 41.8 54.2 68.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 32.7 43.9 66.2 93.2 49.3 46.3 34.3 44.4 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 37.6 46.4 66.4 90.7 46.5 43.8 38.7 48.4 58.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 32.2 40.6 70.8 90.1 46.4 43.7 33.7 42.6 51.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 41.9 59.6 83.4 96.3 51.8 46.6 43.0 57.8 74.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 43.4 42.9 68.4 100.6 57.3 51.1 28.2 38.1 49.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 34.6 45.1 68.3 93.7 50.0 46.8 35.8 45.1 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.8 49.0 60.8 105.8 61.0 54.5 26.8 39.4 54.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 43.4 56.1 83.8 92.3 47.3 44.6 44.5 58.3 73.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 54.0 56.1 63.4 104.4 59.8 52.7 35.5 48.1 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 38.7 49.3 82.5 89.9 44.6 42.4 40.9 53.4 67.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 47.3 44.4 65.9 97.1 53.8 49.1 30.8 41.8 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 45.8 49.8 65.3 107.8 62.5 55.2 29.2 40.2 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 50.8 50.5 66.1 102.3 58.0 50.5 32.8 44.2 57.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 40.7 56.2 77.1 96.2 51.7 46.8 40.9 54.4 70.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 54.8 50.4 70.6 95.3 52.2 49.2 36.3 48.6 62.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 29.9 38.8 66.0 89.1 45.4 43.0 31.8 41.5 52.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 53.5 49.9 68.1 96.3 53.3 50.0 35.6 47.6 60.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 31.1 43.4 68.7 95.8 52.9 48.1 31.7 41.5 52.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 59.9 72.4 84.5 92.4 47.1 44.5 61.6 74.8 89.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 46.5 49.4 62.9 104.4 59.8 53.5 28.4 40.9 55.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------