***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 6.9 5.6 6.9 -2.9 7.4 12.8 8.0 9.1 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 5.4 2.9 6.2 -3.4 3.8 8.1 7.1 8.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 7.5 5.5 6.8 -3.1 5.4 9.7 8.9 10.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 2.1 0.8 4.4 -2.6 9.6 14.1 3.5 4.9 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 4.5 3.1 5.3 -2.8 7.3 11.3 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 3.9 3.5 3.1 -1.9 16.4 20.1 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 5.7 3.7 6.3 -3.2 4.9 9.3 7.2 8.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -2.1 -3.5 2.9 -2.5 7.7 11.3 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 5.2 3.7 5.3 -2.8 6.3 10.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 5.3 3.9 3.6 -2.9 5.6 9.1 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 5.0 4.1 5.0 -2.5 8.5 12.5 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 3.7 3.0 4.1 -2.3 10.7 14.7 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 4.9 4.5 4.2 -2.1 12.7 16.7 5.8 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 5.7 3.6 4.5 -3.4 3.4 6.8 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 6.7 6.4 6.6 -1.6 20.4 24.2 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 5.8 5.2 4.6 -2.2 12.5 16.4 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 6.3 3.8 5.8 -3.5 2.7 6.5 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 3.1 1.1 2.8 -3.2 3.8 7.0 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 5.7 3.4 6.2 -3.4 3.7 7.7 7.1 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 0.4 -0.9 1.3 -2.8 6.2 9.6 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 5.1 3.7 6.6 -2.8 7.2 11.5 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 5.5 3.2 5.9 -3.6 2.8 6.0 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 5.6 3.5 6.1 -3.4 3.8 7.4 6.9 8.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 5.2 3.2 4.8 -3.2 3.4 6.8 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 5.4 3.9 6.3 -2.8 8.3 13.6 6.8 8.1 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 5.0 4.6 3.5 -1.9 14.8 18.9 5.8 6.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 5.3 3.6 6.6 -2.9 8.1 13.6 7.0 8.6 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 4.6 4.1 5.2 -2.0 15.8 19.8 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 2.2 0.1 2.1 -3.2 4.4 7.4 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 5.6 3.4 6.5 -3.3 4.9 9.2 7.2 8.6 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------