***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 8.3 8.5 9.3 -1.5 25.8 29.7 8.9 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 8.2 8.4 8.8 -1.4 25.6 29.6 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 10.1 10.2 9.4 -1.4 25.4 29.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 4.7 4.8 6.8 -1.4 25.9 30.1 5.3 6.3 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 6.5 6.6 7.4 -1.4 26.0 30.5 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 5.5 5.7 5.2 -1.2 27.4 31.2 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 8.3 8.4 8.9 -1.4 26.0 29.9 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 0.8 0.9 5.1 -1.2 27.5 31.8 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 7.6 7.7 7.6 -1.2 26.4 31.2 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 7.9 8.0 6.0 -1.2 27.0 31.6 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 7.3 7.5 7.0 -1.2 27.2 31.7 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 5.9 6.0 6.0 -1.2 26.6 31.1 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 6.8 6.9 5.9 -1.2 26.2 30.5 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 8.7 8.7 7.3 -1.4 24.2 29.3 9.1 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.5 -1.0 29.1 33.1 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 8.1 8.3 6.5 -1.2 27.4 31.4 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 8.8 8.9 8.6 -1.4 25.2 29.4 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 5.9 5.9 5.5 -1.3 27.0 31.3 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 8.5 8.6 8.8 -1.4 25.1 29.5 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.0 3.5 -1.2 29.3 33.4 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 7.6 7.6 8.9 -1.4 25.0 30.0 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 -1.4 23.9 28.3 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 8.4 8.5 8.7 -1.4 24.3 29.2 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 8.1 8.2 7.4 -1.3 25.9 30.5 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.2 -1.6 25.3 29.7 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 6.7 6.9 5.4 -1.2 27.8 31.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 7.9 8.0 8.8 -1.6 25.5 29.6 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.6 7.4 -1.2 27.3 31.4 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.2 5.2 4.8 -1.3 27.0 31.6 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 8.3 8.4 9.1 -1.5 25.7 29.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------