***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9.3 9.7 11.0 -1.1 31.9 35.1 9.8 10.8 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 9.6 10.1 10.8 -0.9 34.8 37.3 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.5 11.1 -0.9 33.1 35.8 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.2 6.9 8.7 -0.7 35.8 38.1 6.7 7.7 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.5 8.9 -0.7 35.6 37.9 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.7 6.8 -0.5 38.9 41.2 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 9.5 10.1 10.9 -0.8 36.1 38.4 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.8 6.9 -0.5 39.6 41.1 2.4 3.3 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 8.9 9.4 9.2 -0.7 36.7 38.7 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.4 7.7 -0.6 38.0 39.9 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.1 8.3 -0.6 36.8 38.9 8.9 9.7 10.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.1 7.6 7.6 -0.5 38.8 40.5 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 8.2 8.7 7.0 -0.7 35.9 38.8 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.2 -0.6 38.3 40.7 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.4 9.9 -0.6 37.4 39.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.8 7.7 -0.6 36.5 39.1 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.5 10.8 -0.8 36.7 38.9 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.9 7.3 -0.5 39.3 41.0 7.5 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 9.7 10.1 10.8 -0.9 34.4 37.0 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 4.5 5.0 -0.4 40.6 42.4 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.8 9.2 10.4 -0.9 34.0 36.7 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.7 10.6 -0.7 36.7 38.9 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.4 9.7 10.7 -0.8 35.6 38.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.0 9.5 9.0 -0.6 38.1 40.1 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 9.1 9.4 9.6 -1.1 31.7 35.0 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.8 6.9 -0.4 41.7 43.4 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 9.5 9.9 10.4 -1.0 32.3 35.6 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.5 9.0 -0.6 37.9 39.9 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 6.8 6.6 -0.5 39.0 41.1 6.5 7.4 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.9 -0.9 33.9 36.7 10.0 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------