***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9.4 9.1 10.0 -1.4 15.6 21.2 9.9 10.5 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 9.1 8.7 9.5 -1.4 13.9 19.9 9.7 10.3 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 10.8 10.4 10.0 -1.4 14.4 20.1 11.4 12.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 5.6 5.3 7.5 -1.2 16.8 22.1 6.2 6.9 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 7.8 7.6 7.9 -1.2 15.6 21.3 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 6.8 6.7 5.8 -0.8 22.6 28.1 7.0 7.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 9.3 9.0 9.6 -1.3 15.5 21.1 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 1.5 1.4 5.8 -1.0 19.4 24.9 2.0 2.5 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 8.7 8.4 8.2 -1.2 16.2 22.1 9.0 9.5 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 8.7 8.5 6.6 -1.1 16.7 22.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 8.3 8.2 7.5 -1.1 17.9 23.6 8.7 9.1 9.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 6.7 6.6 6.6 -1.0 19.9 25.5 7.0 7.5 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 8.0 7.9 6.4 -1.0 19.7 25.3 8.3 8.7 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 9.2 8.9 7.9 -1.3 13.8 19.4 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 9.6 9.6 9.1 -0.8 24.8 29.0 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 9.0 8.9 7.0 -1.0 19.5 24.9 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 9.6 9.3 9.3 -1.4 13.5 19.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 6.7 6.5 6.0 -1.2 15.2 20.9 7.1 7.6 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 9.3 9.0 9.5 -1.4 13.6 19.5 9.8 10.3 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.3 4.0 -1.0 19.6 24.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 8.6 8.3 9.5 -1.3 15.8 21.4 9.0 9.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 8.8 8.5 9.3 -1.4 13.2 18.8 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 9.0 8.7 9.4 -1.4 13.9 19.7 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 8.7 8.4 7.9 -1.3 14.0 19.8 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 8.9 8.7 8.8 -1.4 15.0 20.7 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 7.7 7.7 6.0 -0.8 23.7 29.0 8.0 8.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 9.2 8.9 9.4 -1.4 15.4 21.2 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 7.7 7.6 8.0 -1.0 21.2 26.1 8.0 8.4 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 5.8 5.5 5.3 -1.2 15.7 21.0 6.2 6.9 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 9.3 9.0 9.7 -1.4 14.4 20.3 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------