***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 18.3 16.7 16.2 -3.8 6.2 10.1 19.7 21.0 22.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 17.4 15.1 16.0 -4.1 5.3 8.5 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 17.3 15.2 16.2 -4.0 6.1 10.1 19.1 20.6 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 9.9 8.9 13.7 -2.9 13.0 16.7 11.6 13.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 17.8 16.4 14.9 -3.3 9.9 14.3 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 16.0 15.5 13.2 -2.5 17.7 21.2 17.3 18.9 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 17.2 15.0 16.0 -4.0 5.9 9.2 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 5.2 4.2 12.9 -3.1 12.4 16.4 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 17.4 15.8 15.7 -3.4 9.2 13.7 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 17.4 16.2 13.9 -3.3 10.7 15.2 18.8 20.2 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 17.5 16.3 15.4 -3.1 11.9 16.5 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 16.5 15.5 14.0 -2.9 13.0 17.1 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 17.2 16.2 15.0 -2.8 13.0 17.1 18.7 20.3 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 17.1 14.8 14.8 -4.3 5.6 9.5 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 17.7 17.1 16.4 -2.6 15.1 18.4 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 17.7 16.7 14.8 -3.0 12.4 16.6 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 16.9 14.5 15.6 -4.3 4.9 7.9 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 16.7 15.1 12.8 -3.7 9.0 13.3 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 16.9 14.6 16.0 -4.1 5.1 8.4 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 11.6 10.2 10.9 -3.5 10.3 14.2 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 17.4 15.6 16.3 -3.7 7.6 11.9 19.0 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 17.2 14.4 15.5 -4.4 3.9 7.0 19.1 20.7 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 97 3 0 100 17.2 14.8 15.9 -4.1 5.2 9.0 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 17.0 15.1 14.9 -4.0 7.0 11.3 18.7 20.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 17.5 15.6 15.3 -3.6 7.4 11.5 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 16.5 16.0 13.5 -2.4 16.6 20.2 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 17.5 15.5 15.7 -3.8 6.2 10.1 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 17.5 16.9 15.0 -2.6 15.6 19.0 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 11.5 9.8 12.1 -3.8 8.8 12.9 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 17.1 14.8 16.1 -4.0 5.7 9.1 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------