***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 19.9 19.8 18.5 -2.0 22.9 28.7 20.8 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 19.8 19.7 18.3 -1.9 23.4 28.9 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 20.0 19.8 18.5 -2.1 22.1 27.9 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.6 15.9 -2.0 23.8 29.3 13.4 14.8 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 20.1 20.1 16.8 -2.1 23.9 29.5 20.9 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 18.4 18.6 14.8 -2.0 25.8 30.6 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 19.6 19.6 18.4 -1.8 24.7 30.1 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 7.5 7.5 14.9 -2.1 24.8 29.9 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 19.6 19.5 17.5 -2.1 23.6 29.3 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 19.6 19.6 15.8 -2.2 24.1 29.5 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 19.7 19.7 16.9 -2.1 24.7 29.9 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 18.8 18.9 16.0 -2.0 25.6 30.6 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 19.6 19.7 16.1 -2.0 25.5 30.6 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 19.8 19.4 16.8 -2.4 20.7 26.6 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 20.0 19.9 17.8 -1.9 23.7 29.1 20.7 21.9 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 20.2 20.3 16.4 -2.0 25.1 30.3 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 19.2 19.2 18.1 -1.7 25.0 30.3 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 19.0 18.8 15.0 -2.3 23.0 28.6 19.7 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 19.5 19.3 18.3 -2.0 22.3 27.8 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 13.9 13.8 12.6 -2.3 23.0 28.5 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 19.8 19.7 18.2 -2.2 22.7 28.6 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.7 19.5 17.9 -1.9 23.3 28.7 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 19.8 19.6 18.2 -2.1 21.8 27.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 19.5 19.3 16.9 -2.3 22.0 27.7 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 19.9 19.7 17.1 -2.1 22.0 28.1 20.7 21.9 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 19.1 19.2 15.3 -1.7 27.8 32.7 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 19.8 19.6 17.8 -2.0 22.2 28.3 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 20.0 20.0 16.7 -1.9 24.8 29.9 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.1 -2.4 22.7 28.2 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 19.8 19.7 18.4 -1.9 23.5 29.0 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------