***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.5 -1.2 34.8 37.7 22.0 23.3 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.4 20.6 -0.9 38.6 40.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.2 20.7 -1.2 33.9 37.3 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 14.2 14.7 18.3 -1.2 33.0 36.6 14.7 16.0 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 21.5 21.9 18.8 -1.4 31.1 35.6 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.6 16.6 -1.2 33.3 37.0 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.1 22.0 20.6 -0.9 39.2 40.9 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 9.4 10.0 17.1 -1.3 32.8 37.5 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 20.8 21.3 19.0 -1.4 31.2 35.8 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 20.6 21.2 17.8 -1.4 31.5 36.5 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 20.9 21.4 18.5 -1.4 31.7 36.4 21.5 22.8 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 20.3 20.9 18.1 -1.2 33.3 37.6 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.7 17.3 -1.3 32.6 36.8 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 21.2 22.0 18.9 -1.3 34.1 37.7 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 21.5 22.1 19.3 -1.0 34.9 37.5 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 21.6 22.2 18.1 -1.3 32.5 36.8 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.8 21.7 20.5 -0.8 40.2 41.8 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 20.4 20.9 17.3 -1.4 31.6 36.7 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.8 20.6 -1.0 37.3 39.5 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 15.7 16.2 14.9 -1.3 33.1 37.9 16.2 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.6 20.0 -1.4 31.7 35.8 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.3 22.2 20.4 -0.9 39.2 40.9 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 21.3 22.2 20.5 -1.1 35.6 38.4 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 20.9 21.4 18.9 -1.4 32.4 36.7 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.8 18.8 -1.3 32.7 36.1 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 20.7 21.6 17.5 -0.9 37.6 40.6 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 21.1 21.8 19.7 -1.2 34.6 37.5 21.6 22.9 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 21.4 22.0 18.6 -1.2 33.8 37.1 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 15.6 16.0 16.5 -1.4 31.9 37.0 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 21.2 22.1 20.6 -1.0 37.5 39.7 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------