***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.0 22.5 0.5 55.8 54.5 21.6 23.4 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.5 22.4 0.5 55.8 54.6 22.2 23.9 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.5 22.8 0.5 56.3 54.9 22.2 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.5 20.5 0.6 57.4 55.5 14.9 16.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.0 21.1 0.6 58.0 56.0 22.4 24.2 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.5 18.9 0.7 59.4 56.4 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.2 22.4 0.5 56.4 55.0 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.1 19.5 0.8 60.0 57.7 10.6 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.4 21.3 0.7 58.0 56.1 21.8 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.5 20.1 0.8 59.1 57.0 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.8 20.9 0.8 59.5 57.1 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.8 20.5 0.8 60.1 57.6 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.9 19.7 0.8 59.2 56.6 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.6 21.0 0.6 57.4 55.6 21.9 23.8 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.9 21.4 0.4 55.5 54.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.4 20.4 0.8 59.7 57.0 22.8 24.5 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.9 22.3 0.5 56.8 55.5 21.7 23.3 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.9 19.6 0.8 58.6 56.6 21.3 23.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.9 22.5 0.5 55.8 54.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 19.1 17.1 0.8 59.3 57.2 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.5 22.2 0.6 56.7 55.2 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.4 22.1 0.5 56.3 55.3 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.4 22.5 0.5 56.6 55.1 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.0 21.0 0.7 57.6 55.8 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.3 20.9 0.4 55.2 54.1 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.4 19.8 1.0 62.5 58.9 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.2 21.7 0.4 55.6 54.4 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.0 20.9 0.6 57.9 55.7 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.9 18.7 0.7 58.3 56.4 16.3 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.3 22.5 0.5 55.9 54.6 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------