***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 20.6 20.3 19.4 -1.6 17.1 21.6 21.4 22.5 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 20.7 20.4 19.3 -1.6 18.7 23.1 21.5 22.5 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 20.8 20.4 19.5 -1.7 16.8 21.6 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 13.6 13.4 17.1 -1.4 19.8 24.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 21.1 20.8 17.9 -1.5 18.4 23.3 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 19.6 19.6 15.9 -1.3 23.1 28.1 20.2 21.0 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 20.4 20.2 19.4 -1.5 19.7 23.9 21.2 22.2 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 8.9 8.7 16.1 -1.4 21.2 26.5 9.4 10.4 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.4 -1.6 18.2 23.3 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 20.6 20.4 16.9 -1.5 19.2 24.6 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 20.7 20.5 17.9 -1.4 20.2 25.3 21.3 22.2 23.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 20.0 19.9 17.1 -1.3 22.4 27.5 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 20.9 20.8 17.0 -1.4 21.8 27.0 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 20.7 20.2 17.9 -1.8 16.0 21.3 21.4 22.4 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 21.0 20.9 18.7 -1.3 21.3 25.6 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 21.3 21.2 17.4 -1.4 21.2 26.2 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 20.0 19.8 19.1 -1.6 19.8 24.0 20.8 21.8 22.8 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 20.1 19.8 16.2 -1.7 18.1 23.5 20.7 21.6 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 20.3 20.0 19.3 -1.7 17.8 22.4 21.1 22.1 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 15.1 14.9 13.9 -1.6 19.6 25.0 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 20.6 20.3 19.2 -1.7 16.9 21.8 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 20.4 20.2 19.0 -1.7 18.2 22.8 21.3 22.4 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 20.6 20.3 19.3 -1.7 17.2 22.2 21.4 22.4 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 20.4 20.0 17.9 -1.8 16.7 22.0 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.0 -1.7 15.8 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 20.2 20.4 16.5 -1.0 27.8 32.3 20.7 21.6 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.7 -1.6 16.3 21.0 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 21.0 21.0 17.8 -1.3 22.1 26.6 21.6 22.5 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 15.0 14.7 15.3 -1.7 17.9 23.2 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 20.5 20.2 19.4 -1.6 18.5 22.9 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------