***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.8 14.7 111.8 66.4 54.4 2.9 5.4 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 6.0 8.5 14.0 116.7 68.5 59.3 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.7 9.9 14.1 111.8 66.5 56.9 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.7 10.4 15.8 101.7 62.1 54.6 4.0 7.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.8 8.4 15.2 105.0 63.6 56.3 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.9 14.4 90.4 54.7 48.0 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.9 8.2 14.1 114.6 67.5 57.6 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.1 17.7 92.0 56.8 51.6 9.4 13.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 7.2 9.0 15.0 105.3 63.1 55.9 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 7.8 8.5 17.8 96.7 58.9 53.3 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.7 14.5 94.9 59.5 52.3 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.1 13.5 84.7 54.3 48.5 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.1 12.5 85.5 54.4 47.8 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 9.1 13.1 19.2 121.2 69.8 62.0 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.3 11.6 90.5 58.9 50.2 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.9 13.1 94.6 59.0 51.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.5 9.3 15.1 127.6 72.0 62.8 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.8 12.2 21.1 113.9 66.6 60.2 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.9 8.1 14.0 113.2 67.3 58.7 3.0 5.1 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.1 11.3 22.1 109.9 65.1 59.3 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.5 14.4 105.7 63.7 55.8 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 6.1 10.6 16.0 132.9 73.5 65.1 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.5 8.5 14.5 110.8 66.3 58.5 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.1 9.9 17.9 117.9 68.4 59.7 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.6 9.1 14.6 103.9 63.3 54.6 4.1 6.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.0 6.7 12.0 80.4 52.2 47.4 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.6 14.9 106.2 64.2 53.7 3.2 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.8 13.4 92.7 58.3 50.3 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.0 18.2 21.8 118.2 68.3 61.5 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.1 8.0 13.9 110.1 66.1 56.0 3.0 5.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------