***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 12.2 19.2 126.9 71.6 59.2 3.7 6.5 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.9 16.0 108.4 64.6 54.0 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.5 18.2 125.2 71.1 61.1 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.2 20.9 18.6 114.1 67.2 56.3 7.4 13.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 14.5 19.2 122.2 69.9 59.5 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.5 20.4 107.5 63.4 55.8 5.4 9.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.5 17.0 108.2 64.7 54.7 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 23.8 28.9 18.6 106.5 64.2 56.4 11.2 19.4 30.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.2 19.7 126.2 71.4 62.0 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.9 17.8 20.7 118.3 68.7 60.5 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.3 14.0 18.9 108.0 64.2 56.7 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.0 17.3 18.3 110.9 65.7 58.2 7.0 11.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.8 14.0 20.7 111.9 66.0 58.2 4.9 8.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.2 21.3 21.7 122.0 69.8 60.5 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.3 17.6 109.0 65.7 54.0 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.4 12.4 19.1 107.1 63.9 56.2 5.1 8.6 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.9 15.1 94.1 58.8 50.1 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 20.5 19.4 20.9 115.8 67.4 59.2 6.6 11.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 16.6 16.4 116.9 68.0 56.9 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 18.9 19.2 23.2 122.4 70.4 62.4 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 13.8 15.2 19.4 133.4 73.6 62.0 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.7 15.6 101.4 62.3 52.9 5.2 8.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.9 19.0 17.5 125.4 71.1 60.7 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 19.9 19.4 19.9 120.8 69.3 60.0 5.8 10.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.8 22.6 125.8 71.3 58.9 4.1 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.9 17.7 98.7 60.0 53.2 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.9 14.0 21.4 122.2 70.0 59.0 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.1 17.5 110.2 65.9 54.9 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 23.7 22.6 22.1 117.1 67.8 59.9 7.6 13.5 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.0 17.0 116.8 68.2 57.4 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------