***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.7 20.3 13.1 89.4 59.6 46.6 9.8 16.1 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 6.0 13.1 10.8 88.3 58.1 46.5 5.9 10.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 8.0 15.8 11.2 75.4 53.1 41.6 8.7 14.5 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.7 16.8 12.7 76.6 55.7 44.6 8.4 14.3 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.8 18.0 12.2 74.9 54.5 43.2 8.3 15.5 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.0 12.4 13.4 73.7 52.5 43.2 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.8 13.2 11.4 91.0 59.7 47.7 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.9 20.4 13.4 72.4 50.1 40.7 13.1 20.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.1 13.3 13.6 75.5 54.7 42.7 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.0 15.3 15.0 74.5 52.2 41.8 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.1 11.5 11.4 74.9 53.4 42.6 5.6 10.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.3 10.5 10.9 69.3 50.2 41.0 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.7 10.2 11.8 69.3 51.7 42.0 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.8 15.6 15.0 74.2 51.9 41.9 7.9 14.5 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.9 12.2 81.4 58.7 45.0 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.8 13.3 10.8 69.0 52.0 42.1 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.4 10.5 89.6 58.6 46.2 4.8 8.8 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 15.0 15.9 71.1 50.3 41.2 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.1 17.2 11.0 83.9 56.3 45.2 8.2 14.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 14.0 15.3 73.2 48.8 40.8 9.1 14.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.3 14.9 12.6 77.7 55.8 42.8 7.3 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.0 14.0 11.4 88.9 58.6 46.6 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 6.7 13.2 11.2 75.0 53.2 43.0 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.9 14.9 13.6 68.9 50.1 40.7 9.1 14.9 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.0 15.2 87.5 59.9 47.8 8.5 14.1 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.7 10.3 66.1 50.3 42.3 4.5 8.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 19.6 15.1 92.1 61.0 48.7 8.3 14.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.8 11.2 12.2 76.0 55.8 43.9 5.8 9.5 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.7 20.1 15.6 72.9 50.5 41.4 13.5 20.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 7.7 16.4 11.3 87.4 57.8 46.1 7.9 13.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------