***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 50.8 55.5 64.7 107.1 62.0 56.2 33.6 45.5 59.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 42.1 42.8 57.1 100.2 57.5 53.5 27.4 37.7 49.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 51.7 53.2 60.9 102.3 58.9 54.1 34.5 46.2 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 66.9 68.8 67.0 101.1 58.2 54.0 47.8 61.6 76.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 57.0 60.9 66.7 105.4 61.0 56.4 38.1 50.9 66.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 57.5 56.5 71.6 98.3 55.2 50.8 42.7 53.1 64.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 43.3 44.2 58.8 100.3 57.4 53.6 27.1 38.5 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 92.8 91.5 71.8 98.4 55.8 52.4 70.1 85.8 102.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 51.2 54.1 69.4 105.4 61.0 56.3 35.2 46.1 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 60.7 61.8 77.5 102.0 58.3 54.2 42.7 55.1 68.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 48.1 49.1 63.9 101.1 58.1 54.1 33.9 43.7 54.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 52.9 52.1 62.2 97.5 55.6 51.8 39.1 48.6 59.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 46.5 45.3 66.8 96.0 54.6 49.9 34.1 42.8 52.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 64.3 66.9 79.6 103.3 59.5 54.4 43.5 57.9 73.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 43.2 42.4 58.9 96.3 55.4 50.8 30.6 39.3 48.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 50.4 50.0 63.3 98.4 56.5 51.8 37.0 46.2 56.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 46.5 45.9 57.2 100.6 57.4 53.0 27.3 39.9 54.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 65.8 67.4 83.5 102.9 58.8 54.1 46.4 59.6 74.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 56.1 57.1 58.0 100.7 57.9 53.6 37.0 50.1 64.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 59.2 64.6 85.9 107.5 62.2 57.5 41.1 53.8 68.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 48.1 51.9 65.2 105.9 61.4 56.1 32.5 43.4 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 48.0 48.6 59.5 102.2 58.6 53.8 31.5 42.4 54.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 49.5 50.0 60.6 101.1 58.2 53.4 31.6 43.4 57.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 60.9 61.2 72.7 100.5 57.4 52.8 42.2 55.0 69.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 54.6 57.9 72.5 105.3 60.8 55.7 37.0 49.1 62.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 46.3 41.8 59.3 89.8 50.1 47.3 31.8 41.8 52.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 53.8 57.6 70.6 105.1 60.6 55.6 36.2 48.5 62.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 46.5 46.7 62.7 98.6 56.7 51.8 33.8 42.8 52.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 81.6 84.6 84.5 105.4 60.7 55.6 64.2 76.4 89.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 47.5 49.3 59.1 101.4 58.3 54.5 29.6 42.1 57.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------