***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.6 9.8 11.2 -0.1 47.6 48.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.5 10.8 -0.3 44.9 46.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.3 -0.1 48.9 49.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.5 8.7 0.1 50.9 51.0 5.4 6.4 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.4 9.4 0.2 53.6 52.7 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.8 7.5 0.7 63.5 59.4 6.1 7.1 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.5 10.7 -0.4 43.5 45.4 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.6 7.1 0.3 56.8 54.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.8 9.2 9.5 0.2 53.8 52.4 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.1 9.4 7.9 0.3 55.9 53.8 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.9 8.9 0.2 54.1 52.8 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.6 8.1 0.4 57.6 55.3 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.7 8.1 0.5 59.8 56.4 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.8 9.1 0.1 52.9 52.0 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.9 10.0 -0.1 48.2 48.9 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.0 8.6 0.4 58.3 55.6 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.8 10.4 -0.3 44.1 45.8 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.3 7.3 0.4 56.9 54.4 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.7 10.9 -0.2 46.1 47.1 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.4 5.6 0.5 58.5 55.5 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.7 9.3 10.7 0.1 52.1 51.4 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.2 10.5 -0.2 45.8 47.1 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.5 10.7 -0.1 47.4 48.0 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.4 9.3 9.1 0.1 52.8 51.7 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.4 10.2 -0.1 48.3 49.0 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.6 7.7 0.7 63.0 58.9 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.9 10.7 -0.1 47.7 48.5 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.1 9.2 0.1 52.7 52.0 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.9 6.6 0.3 56.8 54.4 5.6 6.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.6 11.0 -0.3 45.1 46.4 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------