***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.8 11.6 -0.2 46.0 47.5 10.2 11.0 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.2 -0.3 45.3 47.0 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.6 11.6 -0.2 46.1 47.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.9 9.1 -0.1 48.6 49.0 6.9 7.9 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.5 9.5 9.3 0.0 49.7 50.1 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.6 7.4 0.2 54.0 53.9 7.7 8.5 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.8 11.2 -0.4 44.2 46.2 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.7 7.3 0.2 53.3 53.4 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.4 9.5 0.0 50.5 50.8 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.4 10.4 8.0 0.1 52.8 52.6 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.1 8.7 0.0 50.6 50.8 9.3 10.1 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.3 8.4 8.0 0.1 52.2 52.4 7.5 8.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.8 7.5 0.2 53.4 53.7 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.8 9.3 -0.1 49.0 49.7 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.0 10.2 -0.2 46.3 47.5 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.9 8.2 0.1 51.7 51.8 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.2 11.0 -0.3 45.9 47.4 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.8 7.3 0.2 54.3 53.7 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.9 11.3 -0.3 45.3 47.0 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.2 5.2 0.2 55.0 54.9 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.3 10.3 10.8 0.0 49.2 49.8 9.6 10.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.4 10.8 -0.3 45.5 47.0 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.5 11.1 -0.3 45.3 46.9 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.4 9.1 0.0 50.5 50.8 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.6 10.2 -0.1 47.6 48.6 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.6 7.3 0.2 54.0 54.3 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.1 10.9 -0.2 46.8 48.1 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.3 9.4 0.0 49.2 49.6 8.5 9.3 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.9 6.7 0.2 54.7 54.1 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.9 11.4 -0.3 44.4 46.3 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------