***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.6 11.8 -0.8 37.2 39.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.4 11.5 -0.9 36.7 38.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.0 11.9 -0.8 38.1 39.6 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.9 9.3 -0.7 38.1 39.5 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.3 9.4 -0.7 38.2 39.6 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.6 9.1 7.5 -0.5 40.4 41.3 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.5 11.5 -0.9 36.5 38.6 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.6 7.3 -0.7 37.9 39.5 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.1 9.7 -0.6 39.7 40.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 10.9 8.2 -0.6 39.6 40.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.7 8.8 -0.7 37.5 39.0 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 8.3 8.8 8.1 -0.7 37.3 38.9 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.4 7.6 -0.6 38.9 40.1 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.2 11.7 9.7 -0.6 40.1 40.9 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 11.4 11.9 10.6 -0.6 38.7 39.9 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.6 11.2 8.3 -0.6 38.5 39.8 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.8 11.4 -0.8 37.7 39.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.5 7.5 -0.5 41.2 42.0 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.6 11.6 -0.9 36.9 38.9 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.5 5.4 -0.5 40.3 41.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.1 11.1 -0.6 39.6 40.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.3 -0.8 38.0 39.7 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.5 -0.8 37.5 39.3 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.1 9.4 -0.5 40.4 41.2 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.4 10.4 -0.8 37.7 39.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.7 7.2 -0.7 36.5 38.1 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.6 11.1 -0.8 37.6 39.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 9.5 10.1 9.6 -0.6 39.3 40.2 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 7.9 6.9 -0.5 40.8 41.7 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 11.2 11.6 11.7 -0.9 36.1 38.3 11.4 12.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------