***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.9 -0.7 32.5 35.7 10.0 10.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.5 -0.8 29.5 33.2 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 11.3 11.6 11.0 -0.6 34.4 37.1 11.5 12.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 6.7 8.5 -0.3 40.3 41.7 6.4 7.1 7.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.3 8.7 9.0 -0.3 40.9 42.3 8.4 9.0 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.8 7.0 0.1 54.4 53.1 7.2 7.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 9.6 9.7 10.4 -0.9 27.7 31.8 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.6 6.7 -0.1 45.7 46.2 2.1 2.7 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.5 9.0 -0.3 41.4 42.7 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.5 7.5 -0.2 44.6 45.2 9.2 9.7 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.1 8.4 -0.3 40.8 42.2 8.9 9.3 9.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.5 7.6 -0.1 46.5 46.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.9 7.4 0.0 48.6 48.6 8.4 8.9 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.0 8.8 -0.3 39.0 41.1 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.7 -0.4 36.3 38.6 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.0 8.0 -0.1 46.8 47.0 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 9.9 10.1 10.2 -0.8 28.6 32.6 10.2 10.8 11.3 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.8 6.9 -0.1 47.2 47.3 7.3 7.8 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 -0.7 30.9 34.3 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.5 5.1 0.0 51.0 50.3 4.0 4.4 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.1 9.4 10.3 -0.4 38.7 40.7 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 9.2 9.4 10.2 -0.8 30.1 33.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 9.4 9.6 10.4 -0.6 32.8 35.9 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.1 9.5 8.7 -0.3 39.9 41.7 9.3 9.7 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 9.5 9.7 9.8 -0.6 34.1 37.1 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.8 7.1 0.2 55.9 54.3 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.3 -0.7 32.7 36.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.1 8.4 8.9 -0.3 42.1 43.2 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.2 6.9 6.3 -0.1 47.5 47.5 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.7 -0.8 29.6 33.2 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------