***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 19.8 19.8 19.0 -1.7 28.1 30.4 20.2 21.4 22.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 18.6 18.5 18.4 -2.5 20.7 23.3 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 19.4 19.4 19.3 -1.7 29.9 32.0 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.5 12.5 16.3 -1.0 37.0 38.6 12.1 13.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 21.7 20.6 18.5 -0.6 42.6 43.6 19.8 21.2 22.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 19.7 20.5 17.8 1.1 62.5 61.4 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 18.1 17.9 18.0 -2.6 18.4 21.0 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 9.0 8.9 17.4 0.3 53.9 53.7 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 21.2 20.2 19.4 -0.6 42.5 43.6 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 21.0 20.6 18.1 0.0 49.3 49.6 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 21.2 20.6 19.4 -0.2 47.2 47.7 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 20.3 20.1 18.3 0.1 51.6 51.6 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 21.1 21.0 19.3 0.2 52.8 52.7 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 19.0 19.3 18.3 -1.5 31.8 33.9 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 19.3 19.4 18.5 -1.5 31.1 33.0 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 21.6 21.2 18.9 0.0 49.8 50.1 19.7 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 17.8 17.5 17.6 -2.7 18.6 21.2 19.0 20.4 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 20.5 20.0 17.2 -0.2 47.9 48.3 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 18.4 18.3 18.6 -2.3 22.8 25.4 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 15.4 15.5 15.6 0.4 55.4 55.1 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 21.5 20.0 19.8 -1.0 38.0 39.6 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 18.4 18.2 17.9 -2.4 20.9 23.6 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 18.8 18.8 18.8 -2.1 25.2 27.8 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.1 19.6 18.7 -1.0 38.0 39.4 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.1 19.3 18.0 -1.5 30.5 32.6 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 20.2 20.4 17.7 0.5 56.6 56.1 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 18.9 18.9 18.3 -1.9 26.4 28.7 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 21.5 20.1 17.8 -0.8 40.5 41.7 19.4 21.0 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 15.4 15.1 16.7 0.0 50.4 50.6 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 18.4 18.3 18.6 -2.3 22.5 25.0 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------