***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.0 20.9 -0.1 48.4 48.7 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.5 21.7 20.7 -0.4 45.5 46.5 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.2 21.3 0.0 50.3 50.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.3 14.9 18.2 0.1 51.7 51.0 13.4 14.8 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.6 19.7 0.5 55.4 54.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.7 18.0 1.1 62.1 59.8 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.2 20.5 -0.5 43.6 45.1 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.7 18.5 1.1 61.7 59.2 8.3 9.7 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.2 20.4 0.6 57.0 55.3 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.0 22.3 19.2 0.9 60.5 58.1 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.3 20.0 0.5 56.1 54.8 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.4 19.3 0.7 58.0 56.4 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.3 19.3 0.6 56.5 55.5 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.4 20.0 0.5 56.0 54.2 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.8 19.9 -0.2 47.2 47.3 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.9 22.8 19.4 0.5 55.7 54.7 20.9 22.3 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.0 20.4 -0.3 45.9 46.8 20.0 21.4 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.9 18.6 1.1 62.1 59.2 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.1 21.4 20.9 -0.3 47.1 47.8 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 17.6 17.4 16.7 1.5 66.0 62.7 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.3 21.1 0.4 54.9 53.6 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.5 21.8 20.5 -0.1 49.0 49.3 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.5 21.9 21.0 -0.1 48.8 49.1 20.6 22.0 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.0 22.1 20.1 0.6 57.3 55.3 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.4 21.9 19.6 -0.1 48.9 49.0 20.7 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.7 18.6 0.8 58.4 57.4 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.6 20.2 -0.2 47.3 48.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.2 19.1 0.2 52.6 51.8 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.5 17.1 17.9 1.3 63.8 60.5 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.5 20.8 -0.4 45.7 46.7 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------