***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.1 21.0 -0.3 46.0 46.7 22.1 23.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.0 20.7 -0.6 43.5 44.8 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.4 21.2 -0.3 46.8 47.1 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.9 18.7 -0.3 46.2 46.8 14.9 16.2 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.4 19.3 -0.2 47.3 47.5 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.2 17.4 0.1 50.8 50.2 20.9 22.2 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.5 20.5 -0.7 42.2 44.1 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.4 17.9 -0.1 49.0 48.7 10.3 11.5 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.5 22.9 19.6 -0.1 48.5 48.3 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.7 18.5 0.0 49.6 48.9 21.5 22.8 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 21.5 22.9 19.2 -0.2 47.3 47.5 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 20.9 22.2 18.9 -0.2 47.3 47.8 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.2 18.2 -0.1 48.5 48.9 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.3 19.2 -0.2 48.2 47.8 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 21.6 23.0 19.6 -0.4 44.8 45.7 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.7 18.8 -0.2 48.1 48.3 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.2 20.5 -0.5 44.0 45.4 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.5 18.0 0.1 50.8 49.7 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.6 22.7 20.9 -0.5 44.5 45.5 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.8 15.6 0.1 51.5 50.3 16.4 17.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.2 20.6 -0.1 48.8 48.5 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.0 20.5 -0.4 45.9 46.6 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.1 23.1 20.9 -0.4 45.2 46.0 22.2 23.5 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.8 19.4 -0.1 49.0 48.4 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.0 19.3 -0.3 46.7 47.2 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 21.3 22.6 18.3 -0.2 48.1 48.7 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.1 -0.3 45.9 46.8 21.9 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 21.6 23.2 19.1 -0.3 46.7 47.1 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.6 17.1 0.1 51.2 50.0 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.8 -0.6 43.5 44.9 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------