***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 21.0 22.2 21.4 -0.9 39.7 40.3 21.5 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 21.5 22.8 21.3 -1.1 38.5 39.6 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 21.6 22.9 21.7 -0.9 40.7 41.2 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.7 19.2 -0.8 40.8 41.5 14.9 16.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.3 19.8 -0.8 41.3 41.9 22.4 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.2 17.6 -0.4 45.1 45.6 21.0 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 21.4 22.5 21.2 -1.1 37.8 39.1 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.0 11.7 18.3 -0.5 44.0 44.3 10.7 12.3 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.7 20.1 -0.7 42.5 42.8 21.7 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.6 23.0 18.9 -0.5 44.0 44.2 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.9 19.6 -0.8 41.4 42.2 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.0 19.3 -0.7 41.8 42.7 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.2 18.5 -0.7 41.8 42.8 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.5 23.0 19.8 -0.7 42.1 42.6 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.6 20.2 -0.7 41.2 42.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.1 23.6 19.1 -0.7 41.7 42.6 22.7 24.4 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 21.1 22.4 21.2 -1.0 39.4 40.4 21.8 23.3 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.6 18.4 -0.5 44.7 44.7 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.1 22.4 21.4 -1.0 39.1 39.9 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.3 18.0 16.1 -0.3 47.0 46.5 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 21.5 23.0 21.0 -0.6 42.7 42.8 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 21.3 22.8 21.1 -0.9 40.3 41.0 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.5 22.7 21.4 -1.0 39.3 40.2 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.5 19.8 -0.7 42.4 42.8 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.8 19.8 -0.8 40.6 41.2 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.8 22.6 18.6 -0.6 42.7 43.7 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.5 20.6 -0.9 39.5 40.3 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.6 19.5 -0.7 42.1 42.8 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.9 17.7 17.5 -0.4 45.2 45.1 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.4 22.6 21.3 -1.1 38.0 39.2 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------