***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 21.3 21.7 20.6 -0.8 36.0 37.9 21.5 22.6 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.5 20.3 -1.1 31.3 34.0 21.6 22.6 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 23.1 22.0 20.9 -0.7 38.1 39.7 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.9 18.1 -0.5 40.5 41.8 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.2 22.5 19.3 -0.3 44.7 45.3 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 21.5 21.6 17.7 0.4 58.6 57.4 20.3 21.2 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 20.8 21.0 20.0 -1.2 29.0 32.1 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.7 18.0 0.2 53.6 53.0 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.0 19.9 -0.2 46.3 46.7 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.2 18.7 0.1 51.5 51.2 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 22.6 22.2 19.5 -0.2 46.9 47.3 21.4 22.3 23.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 21.7 21.4 19.0 0.0 49.4 49.6 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.4 18.8 0.0 49.7 50.0 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.1 19.3 -0.5 41.6 42.9 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 23.1 22.0 19.5 -0.7 36.7 38.6 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 23.3 22.9 19.0 -0.1 48.1 48.4 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 20.5 20.8 19.9 -1.1 30.9 33.9 20.9 21.9 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.8 18.0 0.1 52.4 51.8 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 20.8 21.2 20.5 -1.0 33.2 35.5 21.2 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.2 16.0 0.4 58.3 56.7 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.1 20.6 -0.3 44.0 44.7 21.5 22.5 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.0 21.5 20.0 -0.9 33.8 36.3 21.4 22.5 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.3 21.7 20.5 -0.9 34.9 36.9 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.4 21.8 19.5 -0.3 44.9 45.7 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.4 21.7 19.2 -0.7 37.1 39.0 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 21.9 21.8 18.3 0.1 52.2 52.1 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.2 21.5 19.8 -0.8 34.5 36.8 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.3 18.9 -0.4 43.1 44.1 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.9 17.3 0.2 54.5 53.5 15.8 16.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 20.9 21.3 20.4 -1.1 31.9 34.4 21.4 22.4 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------